Climate change drought. Image: Piyaset Shutterstock
By the year 2100, average temperatures could rise 7ºC above pre-industrial levels if carbon emissions continue unabated.
The first 2 of the 30 new CMIP6 climate models for evaluating global warming have been published.
Gases greenhouse released into the atmosphere are warming the earth’s surface faster than previously estimated.
Climate scientists are once again raising the bar on the global warming alert. The new data comes from some climate models – collectively known as CMIP6 – that are more precise and exact, and will replace those used in current United Nations projections.
In detail, the progress includes more computational work through supercomputers and sharper representations of weather systems.
Now we have better models. They have better resolution and represent current climate trends more accurately.
The APF news agency has contacted scientists who are working on the project to understand what this means for the future of the planet. And the results are not very encouraging: the first two of the 30 CMIP6 models used predict that by the year 2100 average temperatures will rise 7ºC above pre-industrial levels if carbon emissions continue unabated.
The value is two degrees higher than assumed, for the same date, in the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (read also IPCC: incredible efforts are needed to limit warming to 1.5 ° C).
The new calculations also suggest that the Paris Agreement goals of limiting global warming to “well below” two degrees and, if possible, 1.5 ° C, will be challenging.
With our two models, we see that the scenario known as SSP1 2.6, which normally allows us to be below 2C, does not get us there. A key finding from the two published models is that increasing levels of CO 2 in the atmosphere will warm the earth’s surface more easily than previously suggested.
Olivier Boucher, director of the Pierre Simon Laplace Institute in Paris.
If confirmed, this higher “Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity” (ECS), as it is called in the jargon, will mean a greater probability of reaching higher levels of global warming, even with greater reductions in emissions. And in turn, higher temperatures would mean less time for humanity to adapt and more possibilities to overcome the so-called “points of no return” in climate.