Less than a tenth of the countries that signed the Paris Agreement have established plans to fulfill their commitments. Our politicians laugh at the planet.
Only 16 of the 197 countries that signed the Paris Agreement have defined national climate action plans ambitious enough to meet the commitments made at COP21.
The UN climate conference in Katowice (COP24) is approaching and it is time to examine what is, or rather, what is not being done to fight climate change.
The numbers are shockingly bad, as according to a study by the Grantham Institute for Climate Change and Environment Research and the ESRC Center for the Economics and Policy of Climate Change, both from the London School of Economics and Political Science and from the World Resources Institute, less than a tenth of the signatories of the Paris agreement have established internal plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in line with the commitments.
The 16 countries that do comply with their commitments are Algeria, Canada, Costa Rica, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Indonesia, Japan, Macedonia, Malaysia, Montenegro, Norway, Papua New Guinea, Peru, Samoa, Singapore and Tonga.
On the other hand, far too many have not translated their commitments into national laws and policies, which in turn define concrete and quantifiable internal objectives.
This situation raises serious doubts about the probability of achieving the climate objectives established in the Paris Agreement. The study Aligning National and International Climate Goals found that 157 (responsible for about 95% of annual global emissions in 2014) submitted plans at the national level, including goals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from their economies as a whole; however, only 58 translated them into national laws and policies and only 16 were ambitious enough to meet their commitments and in cases improve them.
Our analysis, says the report, reveals that countries are slow to translate their national commitments into national laws and policies. Since there is already a gap between the objectives of the Paris Agreement and the national objectives of each country, countries should improve the rigor and transparency of their current objectives, as expressed in their national laws and policies. This is an important step towards greater transparency in the credibility of countries to achieve their goals.
If the situation does not change, analysts warn, there remains a significant gap between projected global emissions for 2030 and emissions consistent with the Paris targets and therefore between limiting global warming to below 2 ° C, proceed efforts to limit it to 1.5 ° C, and actual global warming, which would be between 2.7 and 3.7 ° C according to current national plans.
Released five weeks before the next United Nations climate conference, the report recalls what will happen at COP 24: monitoring international progress in meeting commitments. Negotiators will have to define a globally binding set of rules, known as the “Paris Regulation”, that allow countries to compare, measure and monitor each other’s climate goals and move in the right direction.
It must be remembered that climate change will affect us all globally, but in the short-medium term, some countries will suffer it more intensely, this map that reveals the countries that have the best chance of surviving climate change.